Egypt is also facing considerable internal pressures. The fall of Hosni Mubarak and the flight of perhaps a million Egyptian workers from Libya have done great harm to the Egyptian economy, reducing hundreds of thousands of families or more to great poverty. Political parties are trying to convince voters that they are best able to give Egypt a better future. A prominent player is the Freedom and Justice Party, which only a few months ago was founded by leading members of the Muslim Brotherhood.
Egypt is ruled by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) that has temporarily taken the place of ousted president Mubarak. There is also a cabinet consisting of civilians, but it is obvious that crucial, security-related decisions are made by the SCAF, and not the cabinet. Meanwhile, my friends at the Ministry of Water and Irrigation tell me that the military does not involve itself with highly technical issues such as water management.
The SCAF, consisting of the Minister of Defense, his deputy minister, regional commanders, and the heads of air force, marine, and army does not take its responsibility lightly. They meet daily for several hours, discuss issues and make decisions together. They meet with members of the cabinet, representatives of parties and other forces in society to inform themselves before decisions are taken.
But the SCAF is not operating in a vacuum. They cannot ignore widespread sentiments in society. This has been obvious from the first moment the army troops replaced the police on January 28. They operate with care and are sure to take public sentiments into consideration. And thus you see them gradually giving in to the demands of the demonstrators in Tahrir square. Recently former president Hosni Mubarak was brought to court. What a disgrace this was to him: the former pharaoh with his two sons in a cage in court, while images were televised throughout the country and world. I do not think this is what the military wanted. They felt obliged because the widespread sentiment against Mubarak and public calls to have him tried.
There have obviously been deep anti-Israel sentiments in Egypt for many years. I remember the years of optimism when Rabin was Israel’s prime minister. At that time, both Palestinians and Egyptians voiced optimism about the peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians. But after Benjamin Netanyahu and his Likud Party first came to power in 1996, Egyptian hope for a negotiated peace settlement quickly began to fade. There is now anger about the arrogance of Israelis, who continuously choose to solve problems by demonstrating their superior military strength rather than using diplomacy. Yet, despite all frustrations with Israel, the SCAF declared shortly after Mubarak’s ouster that the 1979 Egypt-Israel peace treaty would remain in place.
Last Thursday, Israeli forces crossed into Egyptian territory in pursuit of alleged terrorists and killed six Egyptians. Was this show of force really necessary? And instead of offering an immediate apology, Israel offered a delayed response in which they “offered regret” at the deaths of Egyptian soldiers, but did not strictly apologize. In response, hundreds of demonstrators gathered before the Israeli Embassy, where one of them, Ahmed al-Shahat, became an instant hero by climbing to the 13th floor of the building and replacing the Israeli flag with the Egyptian one that he was wearing on his back. His daring act was widely praised across Egypt. However, there were also other demonstrators who held signs such as the one below, which, as MEMRI was quick to point out, read: "The Gas Chambers Are Ready."
Obviously, such signs and statements are deeply despicable. But unlike MEMRI would have you believe, the great majority of Egyptians are not anti-Semitic. I do not believe this banner represented the feelings of most demonstrators at the embassy. But the fact remains that Egyptians are a very emotional people. Unfortunately, some Egyptians allow their emotions to drift them to propaganda and language to that which they believe will hurt Israelis most, not realizing that they are actually doing more damage to their own cause than Israel’s. Such emotional, and blatantly anti-Semitic outbursts were rarely expressed in Egypt when Yitzhak Rabin was Prime Minister. They did become more frequent after tensions between Israelis and Palestinians increased, but never without other Egyptians flatly rejecting such outbursts.
Following the Egypt-Israel border incident, popular anti-Israel sentiment mounted on the SCAF to expel the Israeli ambassador from Cairo and withdraw the Egyptian ambassador from Tel Aviv. The Egyptian cabinet stated bluntly, “Egyptian blood is not cheap and the government will not accept that Egyptian blood gets shed for nothing.” Only then did Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak say that Israel regretted the deaths of the Egyptian soldiers and told his army to conduct an investigation with Egypt, which responded with cautious approval. An Israeli delegation met with Field Marshal Tantawi. Following this meeting, Barak said: “We highly appreciate the responsibility the Egyptian government is showing [regarding] the peace agreement, and I expressed directly the Israeli regret at the loss of life of Egyptian security people during the incident.”
Tensions with Egypt were reduced, but not so with Palestinians in Gaza. Israel retaliated for the deaths of eight Israelis with an air strike in Gaza that killed at least 15 Palestinians. Palestinians responded by firing at least 50 rockets from Gaza into Israel.
I have heard repeated claims in the past months that the military would be deeply Islamist, which is often associated with anti-Israeli feelings. The past months and days show that this allegation is not true. But it is true that the Egyptian army is trying to keep a lid on social tensions, especially since Egypt is now preparing for elections as part of a promised transition to democratic civilian rule.
Internal pressures
Egyptian political parties and movements are divided over the transition. The Muslim Brotherhood-dominated Freedom and Justice Party wanted parliamentary elections in September. But liberals wanted to postpone those as much as possible in order to give themselves a better chance to organize. No one questions that the Islamists are far better organized than any other political party. Neither does anyone question the importance of the new parliament, which would be responsible for beginning the process of drafting a new constitution.
The SCAF did postpone the election date, but only for a matter of weeks, far less than what liberals had wanted. Indications are that they want a transfer to civilian rule. But how? Days ago they decided to release a new constitutional declaration that includes a list of “supra-constitutional principles” that are intended to guide the drafting of Egypt’s constitution. Islamists reject any such principles and stick to the promises made months ago that the elected parliament will form a constitutional assembly to write the new constitution without any limitations.
The supra-constitutional principles are, of course, intended to limit the expected Islamist influence of the new parliament. It is unlikely that Islamist groups and other political parties will easily let go of their chance to shape the constitution as they wish. A clash is thus seemingly imminent.
According to Diaa Rashwan, a longtime observer of Islamist trends for the Al-Ahram Institute for Strategic Studies, the differences between major political powers over the first five articles of the constitution (including Article 2, which recognizes Islamic Shari’a as the main source of legislation) are minor. Rashwan believes that emphasizing the areas of agreement will help to create a consensus on the preamble to the constitution, while pushing extreme views to the margins.
While politicians squabble, ordinary people in Egypt continue to suffer. The revolution was followed by a tremendous drop in tourism revenue. Around one million Egyptian workers were forced to leave Libya since rebels started fighting the Ghadaffi regime, having lost their jobs and income. Many Egyptian businessmen have lost substantial income and power. During previous Ramadan seasons, Cairo was full of mercy tables with meals for the poor, usually financed by Egyptian businessmen. But this year they seem to be noticeably absent. Poverty is now becoming more visible. These are not good signs.
It is hard to predict where Egypt is headed, but it is certain that Egypt needs to find stability, as well as a way to address its massive poverty problem. Let no one think that the road to democracy is easy; this is not a matter of elections only.
